طراحی الگوی بومی اوراق بهادارسازی جریان‌های آتی (FFS) مبتنی بر اوراق منفعت برای تأمین مالی بخش بالادستی صنعت نفت و گاز ایران

1. Introduction and Objective
Financing large-scale infrastructure and energy projects has always posed significant challenges for developing economies. In capital‑intensive industries such as oil and gas, particularly in the upstream sector, the requirement for substantial financial resources often exceeds the capacity of traditional financing mechanisms. In recent decades, structured finance has emerged as an effective and flexible solution for addressing such challenges by transforming future revenue streams into tradable financial instruments. Among these instruments, Future Flow Securitization (FFS) has been widely utilized in international financial markets as a mechanism for raising capital through the securitization of predictable future cash flows.
The upstream oil and gas sector of Iran, which plays a strategic role in the national economy, requires massive investment for the exploration, development, and production of hydrocarbon resources. However, various economic constraints—including limited access to international capital markets and structural limitations within domestic financial systems—have created substantial barriers to financing large upstream projects. Consequently, identifying innovative and domestically viable financing methods that are compatible with Islamic financial principles has become a critical necessity.
Future Flow Securitization offers a promising solution for project financing by allowing firms to securitize revenues expected from future exports or sales. Nevertheless, the conventional structure of FFS has primarily been developed within conventional financial systems and does not automatically comply with Islamic jurisprudential principles. Therefore, adapting and localizing this financing model within the framework of Islamic finance is essential for its practical implementation in countries such as Iran.
The primary objective of this research is to investigate the possibility of localizing the Future Flow Securitization model for financing upstream oil and gas projects in Iran while ensuring compliance with the principles of Imamiyyah jurisprudence. In particular, the study aims to identify an appropriate Islamic financial instrument capable of replicating the operational logic of FFS. By examining various Islamic financial structures and evaluating them through a multi‑criteria decision‑making framework, the research proposes a localized financing model based on Manfa’at Sukuk (Benefit Securities). Ultimately, the study seeks to provide a practical framework through which future revenues generated from oil and gas production can be mobilized to finance upstream development projects within the Iranian capital market.

2. Methods and Materials
This research adopts an applied research approach with a descriptive‑analytical methodology. The study consists of two main stages: a conceptual and jurisprudential analysis of the Future Flow Securitization structure, followed by a quantitative evaluation of suitable Islamic financial instruments capable of replacing the conventional FFS framework.
In the first stage, the study examines the theoretical foundations of structured finance and project finance, with particular emphasis on the mechanism of future flow securitization. The structural components of FFS—including the originator, special purpose vehicle (SPV), investors, future receivables, and payment mechanisms—are analyzed in detail. Subsequently, the contractual relationships embedded in this financing structure are carefully reviewed and compared with contracts recognized in Imamiyyah jurisprudence. Through this analysis, the study identifies potential Islamic contractual frameworks—such as Ijarah (leasing), Wakalah (agency), and Ju’alah (service commission)—that can replicate the economic functions of conventional FFS while remaining compliant with Islamic legal principles.
The second stage of the research focuses on selecting the most appropriate Islamic financial instrument capable of operationalizing the securitization of future flows in Iran’s capital market. For this purpose, a hybrid multi‑criteria decision‑making model combining the

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) method is employed.
The statistical population of the study consists of 15 experts with professional experience in Islamic finance, capital markets, and oil and gas project financing. These experts were selected through purposive sampling based on criteria such as advanced academic qualifications, relevant professional experience, and familiarity with Islamic financial instruments.
Data collection was conducted through a structured questionnaire comprising two main sections. In the first section, experts performed pairwise comparisons of evaluation criteria using a Likert scale ranging from 1 to 5. The geometric mean method was applied to aggregate the responses and construct the pairwise comparison matrix for the AHP analysis. The consistency ratio (CR) was calculated to verify the reliability of expert judgments. In the second section, alternative Islamic financial instruments were evaluated directly against the identified criteria using the same five‑point scale.
The criteria used for evaluating financing instruments included factors such as jurisprudential compatibility, economic efficiency, compatibility with Iran’s financial structure, risk‑return characteristics, implementation feasibility, transparency, and investor acceptance. After determining the weights of these criteria through AHP, the SAW method was applied to rank the alternative instruments and identify the most suitable option for implementing the localized FFS model.

3. Research Findings
The results of the AHP analysis revealed that among the evaluation criteria, trust and acceptability, compatibility with Iran’s economic structure, and risk‑return characteristics received the highest weights, indicating that these factors play a crucial role in determining the suitability of financing instruments in the Iranian context. The calculated consistency ratio for the pairwise comparison matrix was CR = 0.0131, which is well below the acceptable threshold of 0.1, confirming the reliability and internal consistency of expert judgments.
Subsequently, the SAW method was applied to evaluate the alternative Islamic financial instruments based on the weighted criteria. The results demonstrated that Manfa’at Sukuk (Benefit Securities) achieved the highest overall score among the evaluated options, indicating its superior compatibility with the structural requirements of Future Flow Securitization and the institutional framework of Iran’s capital market.
Based on these findings, the research proposes a localized financing model in which future revenues generated from oil and gas production are securitized through the issuance of Manfa’at Sukuk. In this structure, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC), acting as the originator, first enters into forward or pre‑sale contracts—such as Salaf or forward sales agreements—with oil purchasers to establish predictable future revenue streams. These anticipated revenues are then transferred to a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), which issues Manfa’at Sukuk to investors in the capital market.
Investors purchasing these securities effectively acquire ownership of the future economic benefits derived from oil sales during a specified period. The funds raised from the issuance of the securities are subsequently transferred to the originator and used to finance upstream development activities, including field development and payments to contractors.
Once oil production begins and the contracted oil is delivered to buyers, the revenues generated from these sales are collected and transferred to the SPV. The SPV then distributes the proceeds to investors through the Central Securities Depository and Settlement System, ensuring timely payment of returns to sukuk holders.
The feasibility of this structure is further supported by practical precedent. In 2020, a portion of the benefits generated by Phase 12 of the South Pars Gas Field was successfully securitized through Manfa’at Sukuk under the supervision of the Sharia Committee of the Securities and Exchange Organization of Iran. The committee approved the transfer of benefits through a Sulh al‑Manfa’ah (benefit settlement contract), provided that the underlying asset and benefits were clearly specified and final settlements were conducted at the end of the investment period.

4. Discussion and Conclusion
The findings of this research demonstrate that the conceptual framework of Future Flow Securitization can be effectively adapted to an Islamic financial environment through the use of Manfa’at Sukuk. By replacing conventional debt‑based securitization structures with asset‑based Islamic contracts, it becomes possible to maintain the economic functionality of FFS while ensuring compliance with Sharia principles.
The proposed model offers several advantages for financing upstream oil and gas projects in Iran. First, it enables the mobilization of domestic capital market resources for large‑scale energy investments. Second, by securitizing predictable future revenues from oil production, the model reduces reliance on traditional bank financing and government budgets. Third, the structure provides a transparent and legally sound framework that aligns with both Islamic jurisprudence and the regulatory environment of Iran’s capital market.
Furthermore, the integration of Manfa’at Sukuk with future oil sales contracts creates a mechanism through which investors can participate in the economic benefits generated by upstream oil production while maintaining a clear contractual relationship with the originator. This structure enhances investor confidence and promotes broader participation in energy sector financing.
Despite its advantages, the study also acknowledges certain limitations, particularly the limited availability of detailed historical data regarding previous financing mechanisms used in Iran’s oil and gas sector. Improved transparency and data accessibility from relevant institutions could facilitate more comprehensive analyses and contribute to the development of more advanced financing models in future research.
In conclusion, the localization of Future Flow Securitization through Manfa’at Sukuk represents a viable and innovative financing solution for Iran’s upstream oil and gas industry. The proposed model not only satisfies jurisprudential requirements but also provides a practical framework for mobilizing capital and supporting the long‑term development of strategic energy resources. As such, it can serve as a valuable reference for policymakers, financial institutions, and energy sector stakeholders seeking to expand the use of Islamic capital market instruments in large‑scale infrastructure and energy projects.