DSGE Model Development in Iran for Increasing the Country's Financial Resilience by Minimizing the Effects of Systematic Shocks Overflow

Document Type : Paper

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran

2 Ph.D. Student of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran and Assistant Professor, Imam Hossein Complex University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Iran's Islamic financial system, as one of the main sectors influenced by the overflow of systemic shocks of Iran's economy based on current institutional arrangements, has been considered in this study in the form of a random dynamic general equilibrium model. By setting the real exchange rate as a sufficient statistic, this research examines the method of increasing the resilience of the economy based on Sections 8 and 9 of the General Policy of the Resistance Economy.
    During the implementation of the model, the weaknesses of the applied methods in this area are investigated from linear and stationary non-accidental states aspects. According to the results, the global method with static random status has the maximum capacity to optimize the maximum resistance point.

Keywords

Adrian, E. (2013)."Financial Crises and Bank Funding: Recent Experience in the Euro Area" , BIS Working Papers , Monetary & Economic Department
Ahrend, R., & Goujard, A. (2012). International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility-Part 1. Drivers of Systemic Banking Crises.
Ault, D., & Rutman, G. (1978). The Role of Economics in Interdisciplinary
and Problem-Oriented Programs. The Journal of Economic Education, 9(2),
96-101.
Banerjee, R., Devereux, M. B., & Lombardo, G. (2016). Self-Oriented Monetary Policy, Global Financial Markets and Excess Volatility of International Capital Flows. Journal of International Money and Finance, 68, 275-297.
Benes, J., Kumhof, M. M., & Laxton, M. D. (2014). Financial Crises in DSGE Models: A Prototype Model (No. 14-57). International Monetary Fund.
Berdiev, A. N., Kim, Y., & Chang, C. P. (2012). The political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes in Developed and Developing Countries. European Journal of Political Economy, 28(1), 38-53.
Bergholt, D. (2014). Monetary Policy in Oil Exporting Economies.
Bernanke, B, S., Laubach, T,. Mishkin, F, S,. & Adam S,. P. (1999) , Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience , Journal of Comparative Economics, 28)2(, 422-425.
Bernhard, W., & Leblang, D. (1999). Democratic Institutions and Exchange-Rate Commitments. International Organization, 53(1), 71-97.
Bleaney, M. F., & Francisco, M. (2005). The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: How Valid is the Binary Model? (No. 05/02). CREDIT Research Paper.
Borio, C. E., & Drehmann, M. (2009). Assessing the Risk of Banking Crises–Revisited.
Brunnermeier, M. K., & Sannikov, Y. (2012). Redistributive Monetary Policy. In Jackson Hole Symposium, 1, 331-384.
Calderón, C., & Schmidt, H., K. (2008). Choosing an Exchange Rate Regime. Documentos De Trabajo (Banco Central de Chile), (494), 1.
Carmignani, F., Colombo, E., & Tirelli, P. (2008). Exploring Different Views of Exchange Rate Regime Choice. Journal of International Money and Finance, 27(7), 1177-1197.
Cespedes, L. F., Chang, R., & Velasco, A. (2004). Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy. American Economic Review, 94(4), 1183-1193.
Chang, R., & Velasco, A. (2017). Financial Frictions and Unconventional Monetary Policy in Emerging Economies. IMF Economic Review, 65(1), 154-191.
Corden, W., M. (2004). Too Sensational: on the Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes. MIT Press.
Corsetti, G., Kuester, K., Meier, A., & Müller, G. J. (2013). Sovereign risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability. The Economic Journal, 123(566), F99-F132.
Coudert, V., & Couharde, C. (2009). Currency Misalignments and Exchange Rate regimes in Emerging and Developing Countries. Review of International Economics, 17(1), 121-136.
Csortos, O., & Szalai, Z. (2014). Early Warning Indicators: Financial and Macroeconomic Imbalances in Central and Eastern European Countries (No. 2014/2). MNB Working Papers.
Curdia, V., & Finocchiaro, D. (2013). Monetary Regime Change and Business Cycles. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 37(4), 756-773.
De Medeiros, G. B., Portugal, M. S., & Aragon, E. K. D. S. B. (2016). Robust Monetary Policy, Structural Breaks, and Nonlinearities in the Reaction Function of the Central Bank of Brazil. EconomiA, 17(1), 96-113.
Devereux, M. B., Lane, P. R., & Xu, J. (2006). Exchange Rates and Monetary Policy in Emerging Market Economies. The Economic.
Devereux, M. B., Young, E. R., & Yu, C. (2015). A New Dilemma: Capital Controls and Monetary Policy in Sudden Stop Economies (No. w21791). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Dib, A. (2008). Welfare Effects of Commodity Price and Exchange Rate Volatilities in a Multi-Sector Small Open Economy Model (No. 2008, 8). Bank of Canada Working Paper.
Drake, S. M., & Burns, R. C. (2004). Meeting Standards Through Integrated Curriculum. ASCD.
Drakopoulos, S. A. (1994). Economic Method and the Scientific Philosophy of Contemporary physics. Journal of Interdisciplinary Economics, 5(1), 37-53.
Duca, M. L., & Peltonen, T. A. (2013). Assessing Systemic Risks and Predicting Systemic Events. Journal of Banking & Finance, 37(7), 2183-2195.
Edwards, S. (1998). Capital Flows, Real Exchange Rates, and Capital Controls: Some Latin American Experiences (No. w6800). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Edwards, S. (2015). Monetary Policy Independence Under Fexible Exchange Rates: an illusion?. The World Economy, 38(5), 773-787.
Eichengreen, B., & Leblang, D. (2003). Exchange Rates and Cohesion: Historical Perspectives and Political‐Economy Considerations. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 41(5), 797-822.
Escude, G. J. (2013). A DSGE Model for a SOE With Systematic Interest and Foreign Exchange policies in Which Policymakers Exploit the Risk Premium for Stabilization Purposes. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 7(2013-30), 1-110.
Fernandez-Rodríguez, F., Gomez-Puig, M., & Sosvilla-Rivero, S. (2015). Volatility Spillovers in EMU Sovereign Bond Markets. International Review of Economics & Finance, 39, 337-352.
Frankel, J. A., & Rose, A. K. (1996). Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency. IIES.
Frankel, J. A., & Rose, A. K. (1996). Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment. Journal of International Economics, 41(3-4),
351-366.
Frenkel, J. A., & Aizenman, J. (1982). Aspects of the Optimal Management of Exchange rates. Journal of International Economics, 13(3-4), 231-256.
Frankel, J. A., & Saravelos, G. (2012). Can Leading Indicators Assess Country Vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis. Journal of International Economics, 87(2), 216-231.
Frieden, J., & Stein, E. (2000). The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Policy in Latin America: An Analytical Overview.
Frieden, J., Leblang, D., & Valev, N. (2010). The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes in Transition Economies. The Review of International Organizations, 5(1), 1-25.
Gabaix, X., & Maggiori, M. (2015). International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(3), 1369-1420.
Gertler, M., & Kiyotaki, N. (2010). Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis. In Handbook of Monetary Economics, 3,
547-599.
Ghosh, A. R., Gulde, A. M., Ostry, J. D., & Wolf, H. C. (1997). Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Regime Matter? (No. w5874). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Guillaumont, P. (1999). On the Economic Vulnerability of Low Income Countries. International Task Force on Commodity Risk Management in Developing Countries, World Bank, 2-28.
Hassan, T. A., Mertens, T. M., & Zhang, T. (2016). Not so Disconnected: Exchange Rates and the Capital Stock. Journal of International Economics, 99, S43-S57.
Hermansen, M., & Rohn, O. (2015). Economic Resilience: The Usefulness of Early Warning Indicators in OECD Countries.
Jorda, O., Schularick, M., & Taylor, A., M. (2011). Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons. IMF Economic Review, 59(2), 340-378.
Kaminsky, G., L., & Reinhart, C., M. (1998). Leading Indicators of Currency Crises. Staff Papers, 45(1), 1-48.
Kaminsky, G., L., & Reinhart, C., M. (1999). The Twin Crises: the Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems. American Economic Review, 89(3), 473-500.
Kimakova, A. (2008). The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regime Determination: Theory and evidence. Economic Systems, 32(4), 354-371.
Kiyotaki, N., & Moore, J. (1997). Credit cycles. Journal of Political Economy, 105(2), 211-248.
Klein, M,. W., & Shambaugh, J., C. (2012). Exchange Rate Regimes in the Modern era. MIT Press.
Knight, F. H., Risk, U., & Profit, B. (1921). MA: Hart, Schaffner & Marx.
Krishnamurthy, A., Muir, T., & Yale, S. (2015). Credit Spreads and the Severity of Financial Crises. Unpublished Manuscript.
Kumhof, M., Laxton, D., & Naknoi, K. (2007). Does the Exchange Rate Belong in Monetary Policy Rules? New Answers from a DSGE Model with Endogenous Tradability and Trade Frictions!.
Kumhof, M. M., & Bi, H. (2009). Jointly Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules under Borrowing Constraints (No. 9-286). International Monetary Fund.
Mendoza, E, G. (2010). Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage, ,American Economic Review, 100(5), 1941-66.
Mendoza E, G. & Oviedo, T. (2008). Intermediation of Capital Inflows: The Macroeconomic Implications of Neoclassical Banks and Working Capital.
Mundell, R. (1969). Toward a Better International Monetary Aystem. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 1(3), 625-648.
Naknoi, K., Kumhof, M., & Laxton, D. (2005). On the Benefits of Exchange Rate Flexibility under Endogenous Tradedness of Goods (No. 405). Society for Computational Economics.
Poirson, M. H. (2001). How do Countries Choose Their Exchange Rate Regime? 1-46. International Monetary Fund.
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2011). From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis. American Economic Review, 101(5), 1676-1706.
Reinhart, C. M, Reinhart, V., & Trebesch, C. (2016). Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, NBER Working Paper No. 21958
Robert J. Barro, R. J. & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1992). Convergence, Journal of Political Economy, 100(2).
Rohn, O, A, Sanchez, C., Hermansen, M. & Rasmussen, M. (2015). Economic Resilience: A New Set of Vulnerability Indicators for OECD Countries, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 149, OECD Publishing.
Rose, A., & Spiegel, M. (2011). Cross-country Causes and Consequences of
the Crisis: An Update, Special Issue: Advances in International Macroeconomics: Lessons from the Crisis, European Economic Review, 55(3), 309–324.
Sanchez, A. C., de Serres, A., Gori, F., Hermansen, M., & Rohn, O. (2017). Strengthening economic resilience.
Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, and Martín Uribe. (2015). “How Important Are Terms Of Trade Shocks?”, NBER Working Paper No. 21253
Schularick, M,. & Taylor, A. (2012). “Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008”, American Economic Review, 102(2), 1029-61.
Sutherland, D., & Hoeller, P. (2012). “Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1006, OECD Publishing.
Yeyati, E. L., Sturzenegger, F., & Reggio, I. (2010). On the Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes. European Economic Review, 54(5), 659-677.
  • Receive Date: 20 January 2018
  • Accept Date: 15 July 2018