Studying the Causality Relationship between Money and Capital Market in order to Restrain Financial Market Fluctuation within Resistive Economy Framework

Document Type : Paper

Authors
Saeed Mohammadi Aghdam 1
Mohammad Hosin Gavam 2
1 Bachelor's degree in Islamic Studies and Management of Imam Sadiq University
2 Assistant Professor of Imam Sadiq University
10.30497/ifr.2016.1855
Abstract
Money and capital market are among financial institutions that have significant role in economy, and coordinating synergic relationship between them could cause economic growth. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei, introduced the concept of resistive economy and communicated its executive policies in 1389. Resistive economy is among those models which have other forms in conventional economy. Within this framework, economic policies must be coordinated by recognizing internal and external pressures and fluctuations, and benefiting from the direction and interconnection among the essential pillars of economy in order to control, reduce and remove the negative effects. In this research, by studying the theoretical concepts of capital and money market relationship in conventional economy and explaining resistive economy, we want to map the role of these two markets in the resistive economy model. Besides, based on annual Granger test results in the years 1370-1392, the one-way causality relationship of capital market with money market was confirmed. Also, the regression results confirmed Granger test results and approved the causality relationship of money market with capital market in the Iranian economy. We can conclude, then, that by changing policy making in every market, we could develop another market. In case there is volatility in one market, based on the explanation about the two market interrelationship and by changing policies in the other market, we could control fluctuations and make the Iranian economy resistant against both money and capital market fluctuations. Finally, we suggest some policies in order to reinforce macroeconomic variables, money market, capital market and interrelationship between the two.
Keywords
capital market
Money Market
Ordinary Least Square Test
Granger Causality Test
1 Year Deposit Rate
TEPIX
بیانات مقام معظم رهبری، حرم مطهر امام رضا(ع)، 1393.
حداد کشاورز، غلامرضا و امید مهدوی (1384)، «آیا بازار سهام در اقتصاد ایران کانالی برای گذر سیاست پولی است؟» تحقیقات اقتصادی، شماره 71، صص 147-170.
خوانساری، رسول و قلیچ وهاب (1394)، عوامل مؤثر برتحقق سیاست‌های کلی اقتصاد مقاومتی در نظام بانکی، تهران: پژوهشکدهپولی و بانکی بانک مرکزی جمهوری
اسلامی ایران.
درخشان، مسعود (1393)، «قراردادهای نفتی از منظر تولید صیانتی و ازدیاد برداشت: رویکرد اقتصاد مقاومتی»، مطالعات اقتصاد اسلامی، شماره 12، صص 7-52.
صداقت، پرویز (1389)، «اقتصاد سیاسی مالی گرایی و تأمین مالی کلان شهرها»، اقتصاد شهر، شماره 7، صص 66-70.
محرابیان،‌آزاده (1383)،‌ «حساسیت بازار سهام نسبت به نوسانات مالی و پولی»، پژوهشنامه اقتصادی، شماره 12، صص 169-186.
محسنی زنوری، سید جمال الدین، پریسا جوهری سلماسی و علیرضا هلالی (1390)،‌ «بررسی همگرایی بلندمدت نرخ سود بانکی با بازدهی بازار سهام در ایران»،‌ معرفت اقتصاد اسلامی، شماره 5، صص 36-47.
موسوی جهرمی، یگانه و نسرین رستمی (1394)، «بررسی اثرات نامتقارن تکانه‌های سیاست‌های پولی بر شاخص کل قیمت سهام در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران»، دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادار (مطالعات مالی)،‌ شماره 26، صص 47-62.
صفرزاده، حسین و مهدیه جلالی نژاد (1389)، «بررسی تأثیر نوسانات نرخ سود در بازار پول بر تصمیم‌گیری سرمایه‌گذاران و عملکرد بازار سرمایه»، مهندسی مالی و مدیریت اوراق بهادار، شماره 5، صص 107-136.
Asadi, Ali; Maleki Shahrivar, Mojtaba; Esmaili, Meisam (2015), Passing Through Sanctions By Resistive Economy", In Resistive Economics, 6 (38).
Alquist, R. (2010), "How important is liquidity risk for sovereign bond risk premia? Evidence from the London stock exchange. Journal of International Economics, 82(2), pp. 219-229.
Briguglio, L & Piccinnino, S. (2012), "Growth with Resilience in East Asia and the 2008 –2009 Global Recession". Asian Development Review.
Briguglio, L, & Cordina, G & Farrugla, N & Stephan Vella,. (2009), "Economic Vulnerability and Resilience: Concepts and Measurements". Oxford Development Studies, Vol. 37, No. 3.
Blanchard, Olivier J. (1981), "Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates", In The American Economic Review 71 (1), pp. 132–143.
Bragues, George (2014), Has Fritz Machlup Stood the Test of Time? Revisiting his Monetary Analysis of the Stock Market. Entangled Political Economy: Emerald, pp. 139-160.
Cuixia, Sun (2011), The analysis of interaction between monetary market and capital market. International Conference on Uncertainty Reasoning and Knowledge Engineering: Institute of Electrical & Electronics Engineers.
Dornbusch, R., Fischer, S., and Startz, R. (2008), Macroeconomics, tenth edition. McGraw-Hill Irwin, Boston, Massachusetts
DeFina, R. H. (1991), Does inflation depress the stock market? Business Review, pp. 3-12.
Friedman, M. (1988), "Money and the stock market", Journal of Political Economy, 96(2), pp. 221-245.
Khanzadi, Azad & Heidari, Samira (2015), "Analysing the Impact of Economic Strengthening on Economic Liberalization", In Resistive Economics, 6 (37).
Maysami, R. C., & Koh, T. S. (2000), A vector error correction model of the Singapor stock market. International Review of Economics and Finance, pp. 96-979.
Mishkin, F. S. (2004), The economics of money, banking, and financial markets (ninth Ed.), USA: Prentice Hall
Shahab, Mohammad Reza; Delavari, Mohammad; Hashemi, Shokooh Alsadat (2015), Economic Austerity Along with Resistive Economy as Two Actuating Forces in Iran's Economy. In Natural and Social Sciences 4 (1).
Yusof, RM & AbdulMajid, S (2007), "Stock Market Volatility Transmission in Malaysia:Islamic Versus Conventional Stock Market", Islamic Economics, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 17-35.
 

  • Receive Date 22 December 2015
  • Revise Date 23 December 2015
  • Accept Date 08 June 2016